May suggests she favours a hard brexit, what will be the consequences for the UK?

That’s the question that many are asking in the wake of Theresa May’s speech at Lancaster House, in which she revealed that the UK will pull out of the single market and seek to conclude a free trade deal with the European Union.

There can be no specific answer because we don’t know what type of free trade deal (if any) will be agreed by the UK and the EU.

But we can provide some useful context for thinking about the potential cost and also by looking at the results of previous economic modelling.