Europe’s gas storage position continues to look healthy as the region heads into winter. By late August, inventories stood at around 75–76% full — comfortably above the seasonal average and close to the trajectory needed to reach 90% between 1st October and 1st December.
Reaching this target would provide a significant buffer against early-winter cold snaps and reduce the market’s need to price in a high winter risk premium. For UK consumers, this is supportive of lower Q4-25 seasonal pricing, as the NBP closely tracks European storage adequacy.
However, Norwegian gas remains the UK’s most important pipeline source, supplying more than 40% of demand. While planned maintenance this summer has been less disruptive than in previous years, unplanned outages at processing plants or along the Langeled pipeline can still cause sharp price spikes.
The market remembers that even short disruptions in Norway have previously lifted UK and continental gas prices by several pence per therm. So while Europe’s strong storage position is reassuring, businesses cannot ignore the upside risk tied to Norway’s reliability.
