LNG has become Europe’s balancing fuel since Russian pipeline flows collapsed, with around 35–40% of the UK’s winter gas supply now sourced from LNG. On the surface, global LNG supply looks robust: US exports remain strong, and Asian demand was softer through mid-2025, freeing up more cargoes for Europe.
Yet risks remain beneath the surface. The Red Sea and Suez Canal continue to be flashpoints, with many vessels rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. This diversion adds up to two weeks to delivery times and raises both shipping and insurance costs.
A single major outage at a US terminal — such as Freeport’s downtime earlier this year — or a cluster of shipping disruptions could quickly squeeze Atlantic Basin balances and tighten UK prices. For Q4–25, that could translate into an additional 6–12 p/th on NBP gas and 8–15 £/MWh on GB power.
Conversely, if Asian demand continues to underperform expectations, Europe could capture a larger share of global LNG cargoes, helping to suppress prices. In short, LNG flows and shipping stability remain a decisive swing factor for the UK market.
