LNG has become Europe’s balancing fuel since Russian pipeline flows collapsed, with a significant percentage of the UK’s winter gas supply now sourced from LNG. On the surface, global LNG supply looks robust: US exports remain strong, and Asian demand was softer through mid-2025, freeing up more cargoes for Europe.
Yet risks remain beneath the surface. The Red Sea and Suez Canal continue to be flashpoints, with many vessels rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. This diversion adds up to two weeks to delivery times and raises both shipping and insurance costs.
A single major outage at a US terminal, such as Freeport’s downtime earlier this year, or a cluster of shipping disruptions could quickly squeeze Atlantic Basin balances and tighten UK prices. For Q4–25, if the outages have longer downtimes, then prices could increase further.
Conversely, if Asian demand continues to underperform expectations, Europe could capture a larger share of global LNG cargoes, helping to suppress prices. In short, LNG flows and shipping stability remain a decisive swing factor for the UK market.
