Weather: Cold Spells & Low Wind

Weather remains the perennial wild card for UK energy markets. A colder-than-average Q4 would sharply increase heating demand, both directly through gas consumption and indirectly through power demand, particularly from electrified heating and industrial activity.

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At the same time, the UK’s growing dependence on wind generation makes it vulnerable to “dunkelflaute” periods, when cold conditions coincide with very low wind output.

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During such spells in recent winters, UK gas burn for power generation has risen sharply, at times nearly 20% higher compared with the same period a year earlier. The forward market always includes a risk premium to reflect this risk, but the scale of any cold/low-wind event determines whether prices spike above base-case ranges.

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In a severe, prolonged event lasting several weeks, Q4–25 could see an extra 8–12 p/th added to NBP gas and 10–20 £/MWh to baseload power. Conversely, if weather proves mild and windy, prices could soften toward bear-case levels, especially given Europe’s supportive storage position.

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Long-range forecasts from meteorological services currently suggest the UK’s weather for Q4–2025 will be milder than seasonal averages, although confidence at this horizon is low. This could bring a mix of unsettled conditions, including storms, but with an overall tendency for above-average temperatures and slightly higher-than-average wind generation.