Gas Storage & The Q2 Refill Crisis: Low Levels Driving UK & EU Energy Prices

Why Gas Prices May Stay High: The Q2 Storage Refill Impact on Your Costs

Q2 is the window where Europe must refill its gas storage to prepare for the following winter.

20+ Years Experience

A trusted industry leader working for a diverse range of commercial customers.

20+ Years Experience

A trusted industry leader working for a diverse range of commercial customers.

20+ Years Experience

A trusted industry leader working for a diverse range of commercial customers.

ENERGY CONSULTANCY OF THE YEAR 2025

Publish Date:

April 1, 2026

Storage Fundamentals: The Q2 Refill Crisis

Q2 is the window where Europe must refill its gas storage to prepare for the following winter.

  • Low Starting Point: Due to a cold end to Q1 and disrupted flows, UK/EU storage levels are entering Q2 at roughly 30% capacity. This is down on last year by approximately 7-10%.
  • Injection Demand: The market must now buy gas at "war prices" just to put it into the ground for Winter 2026. This creates a "demand floor" — prices cannot drop significantly during Q2 because the need to refill storage will provide constant buy-side pressure.
  • Higher Priced Injections: The need for high-priced injections in Q2-26 acts as a strong bullish factor for Win-26 prices, albeit one of several competing drivers.

How Can Advantage Help? 

Our sustainability department continue offer an ever-increasing range of products and technology aimed at reducing energy consumption and associated costs as well as driving down carbon emissions. We will of course continue to keep you updated around these initiatives, but please do reach out to your designated point of contact should you wish to explore your options in this regard.

In terms of procurement, we will of course continue to monitor markets with a view to helping customers navigate the unprecedented circumstances and ascertain when constitutes the best time to seek a contract extension.

Our popular flexible procurement options continue to be an option for an increasing number of clients on either a standalone basis or as part of a grouped basket. This often facilitates access today/month ahead trading markets which have proved to be particularly beneficial to many clients over the winter period.

BULLISH IN Q2

  • IRAN WAR AND GEOPOLITICAL FALLOUT

  • COMPETITION FOR LNG

  • LOW EUROPEAN STORAGE

  • POLITICAL & ECONOMIC INSTABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY  

  • RUSSIA/UKRAINE WAR

RANGEBOUND IN Q2

  • VOLITILITY & UNCERTAINTY

  • CARBON

  • OIL PRICES

BEARISH IN Q2

  • MILD SUMMER START

  • WHOLESALE FUTURES PRICES – 2028 & BEYOND

  • TRUMP’S TARIFFS

  • PROSPECT OF CEASEFIRES

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