Has the New Prime Minister Actually Changed Anything?
Has the New Prime Minister Actually Changed Anything?
A look at the government’s early energy decisions, upcoming Budget and key North Sea projects shaping the UK energy outlook.
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ENERGY CONSULTANCY OF THE YEAR
Publish Date:
October 1, 2026
Key Market Drivers & Fundamentals
Has the New Prime Minister Actually Changed Anything?
Andy Burnham became Prime Minister on 20th July, with Miatta Fahnbulleh taking over as Energy Secretary. It’s natural to wonder whether that’s changed the picture for energy, so here’s an honest rundown of what’s actually happened, versus what’s just been talked about.
WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED
The clearest move so far is removing VAT from domestic (household) electricity bills from 1st October.
That doesn’t directly change most business tariffs, but it’s a signal that this government is willing to intervene directly on energy costs, worth keeping an eye on ahead of the Budget.
ONE THING THAT'S BEEN SETTLED QUIETLY
There had been talk for years about splitting Britain into different electricity price zones (so, for example, Scotland might pay a different rate to London). That idea has now been ruled out, the whole country will keep a single national price. If you’d heard about this and worried it might complicate your bills, you can relax: it isn’t happening.
ONE TO WATCH ON THE CALENDAR:
The Chancellor delivers the Autumn Budget on (usually early) 28th October, and only a few months into the new government’s term. Because energy is priced in US dollars globally, any wobble in the pound around the Budget makes UK energy imports a little more expensive, on top of everything else. Burnham has also hinted at wanting to go further on business rates relief, so it’s worth watching for anything business-facing on the day.
THE DECISION THAT ACTUALLY MATTERS, AND HASN'T LANDED YET
Two major North Sea gas and oil projects, Rosebank and Jackdaw, worth £10.8 billion combined, are waiting on a government decision expected this September. Approving them wouldn’t add any gas to the system this winter, but it would be a strong early signal of how seriously this government takes UK gas supply going forward. We’ll be watching this closely, and we’d suggest you do too, it’s arguably the first real test of this government’s energy instincts.
Energy Market Report Q4 2026
How Can Advantage Help?
Our sustainability department continue offer an ever-increasing range of products and technology aimed at reducing energy consumption and associated costs as well as driving down carbon emissions. We will of course continue to keep you updated around these initiatives, but please do reach out to your designated point of contact should you wish to explore your options in this regard.
In terms of procurement, we will of course continue to monitor markets with a view to helping customers navigate the unprecedented circumstances and ascertain when constitutes the best time to seek a contract extension.
Our popular flexible procurement options continue to be an option for an increasing number of clients on either a standalone basis or as part of a grouped basket. This often facilitates access to day/month ahead trading markets which have proved to be particularly beneficial to many clients over the winter period.
BULLISH IN Q4
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IRAN WAR AND GEOPOLITICAL FALLOUT
COMPETITION FOR LNG (GEOPOLITICS & EL NIÑO)
LOW EUROPEAN STORAGE
POLITICAL & ECONOMIC INSTABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY
RUSSIA/UKRAINE WAR
RISING CARBON
RANGEBOUND IN Q3
OCTOBER BUDGET
VOLITILITY & UNCERTAINTY
ANY FURTHER NORWEGIAN UNPLANNED OUTAGES
RE-OPENING STRAIT OF HORMUZ
MIDTERMS AND AFTER-EFFECT
BEARISH IN Q3
MILD LEANING UK WINTER
HEALTHY WINTER ELECTRICITY SYSTEM
WHOLESALE FUTURES PRICES, 28 & BEYOND
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